For a product that is replacing another, which qualitative forecasting method is most suitable?

The choice of historical analogy as the most suitable qualitative forecasting method for a product replacing another is based on its utility in leveraging past experiences. This method involves examining the sales trajectory or performance of a previous product that shares similarities with the new product. By analyzing historical data, businesses can draw parallels and make informed predictions about how the new product might perform in the market.

In situations where there is little or no historical sales data for the new product, such as a product replacement scenario, using historical analogy allows companies to forecast outcomes based on past patterns. For example, if the new product is an upgraded version of a previous one, analyzing how the older model performed can provide insights into potential demand, market acceptance, and sales trends.

In contrast, other methods like expert opinion or focus groups may introduce subjective biases, as they rely heavily on individual perspectives that can vary widely. While panel consensus can help gather a rounded view, it still may not provide the concrete data-driven insights that historical analogy offers, especially when dealing with known product replacements. Thus, historical analogy stands out as the most relevant and practical approach in this context.