Which forecasting method is best for reconciling product forecasts with aggregate forecasts used in business planning?

The Pyramid forecasting method is particularly effective for reconciling product forecasts with aggregate forecasts, as it involves a structured approach to develop forecasts at different hierarchical levels. This method enables organizations to align their detail-level forecasts—such as individual products or SKUs—with broader, aggregate forecasts that reflect overall business planning goals.

In Pyramid forecasting, data is grouped into hierarchical categories, allowing the organization to first create forecasts at the total level (aggregate) and then distribute these totals among various lower levels (products or product categories). This distribution ensures that the individual product forecasts will sum up to the overall forecast, which provides a cohesive and consistent view for decision-making.

Furthermore, this method can incorporate feedback from both aggregate and detailed levels, allowing for adjustments based on overall business trends while maintaining attention to specific product performance. By using a bottom-up and top-down approach in forecasting, organizations can improve accuracy and alignment across all levels of their planning processes.

Other methods such as exponential smoothing, least squares, and simple averages primarily focus on statistical techniques for predicting future values based on historical data, without inherently ensuring the reconciliation between product-level forecasts and aggregate forecasts. These methods do not provide the layered structure and necessary checks that the Pyramid method offers, which is crucial for effective business planning.