Which forecasting method is most appropriate for developing forecasts for strategic planning?

The most appropriate forecasting method for developing forecasts for strategic planning is rooted in the capability of economic growth models to analyze long-term trends and factors that influence the broader economic environment. These models take into account various macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, employment levels, and other economic metrics that can significantly impact an organization's strategic planning process.

Using economic growth models helps organizations understand the overall economic landscape and anticipate future changes that may affect their operations and market strategies. This method is particularly suitable for strategic planning because it provides insights into long-term growth potential and allows businesses to align their resources and capabilities accordingly.

In contrast, the other methods mentioned, such as exponential smoothing, moving averages, and historical analogy, are generally more suited for short to medium-term forecasting. Exponential smoothing and moving averages focus on recent data and trends to predict near-future demand or sales, which may not capture the broader economic factors needed for strategic decisions. Historical analogy relies on past events to forecast future outcomes, but it may not adequately account for shifts in the economic environment or changes in consumer behavior over time, making it less reliable for long-term strategic planning.